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Deepening Political Polarisation and Signs of Violent Civil Strife
Threaten Peaceful Conduct of Elections in Pakistan
How have the events of the last one week affected the prospects of free
and fair election in Pakistan? PILDAT, led by its Executive Director Ahmed
Bilal Mehboob, has analysed the recent developments in the perspective of
the coming elections.
Three major events dominated the political and electoral scene last week.
Supreme Court judgment on September 28
delivered a 6-3 split verdict in favour of General Pervez Musharraf
declaring the petitions challenging, in effect, his candidature for the
President of Pakistan “not maintainable.” The simple question before the
court was whether General Musharraf can be a candidate for President while
he is the Army Chief. The judgment did not answer that question; it merely
postponed it. The question will almost definitely come back to the Supreme
Court after nomination papers of Gen Musharraf are accepted by the
Election Commission. The judgment once again raised widespread questions
about the independence of the Judiciary while one newspaper prominently
published statements attributed to the family of one of the 9 Judges of
the Supreme Court hearing the case about the extreme pressure and threats
directed at the Judge to deliver a pro-Musharraf verdict. A government
spokesman denied the report. The judgment accentuated the sharp divide in
the society between pro-Musharraf and anti-Musharraf camps. Bar
Associations’ leadership strongly reacted against the judgment and decided
to organise protests and continue the legal battle. It appears that the
prestige and the stature of the Supreme Court, which it had recently
gained, has received a fresh setback – a development with serious blow to
the prospects of free and fair election.
The Election Commission of Pakistan, as expected, declared the
nomination papers of General Pervez Musharraf in order and rejected all
objections raised by other contestants on September 29. While the scrutiny
of candidates’ nomination papers was in progress inside the Election
Commission office, journalists standing outside and not permitted to enter
the EC office were subjected to one of the worst police torture. The Chief
Election Commissioner, despite appeals by some friends of the journalists,
refused to exercise his authority to stop police from brutalising the
journalists assembled to discharge their professional duties. Earlier only
state-controlled Pakistan Television was allowed to cover the proceedings
of submitting and scrutiny of nomination papers and all other independent
TV channels were barred. The CEC appeared to be a party to this decision.
It appears that, with these acts, the weak public trust in the Election
Commission to conduct free and fair election received a further dent. This
has set the stage for the Bar Associations to take the case back to the
Supreme Court. A petition is expected to be filed with the Supreme Court
as early as 2nd of October. Will the case be decided by the Supreme Court
before the Presidential Election scheduled for October 6? Will the Chief
Justice sit on the bench that hears the case? Will the judgment block Gen.
Musharraf’s candidature? Will Gen. Musharraf resort to some
extra-constitutional steps like Martial Law when and if faced with
disqualification as a Presidential candidate by the Supreme Court? These
are some of the key questions which are closely linked to the prospects of
free and fair Presidential and later General Parliamentary Elections. Only
time will provide the answers but indications are that it will not take
very long to know the outcome.
The third and the most ominous development during the past week, with
direct and serious impact on the prospects of free and fair election, was
the brute force used by the Islamabad police against the protesting
lawyers, and the media-persons trying to cover the events for their
newspapers and television channels. Senior lawyers like Mr. Aitzaz Ahsan
were directly hit by bricks thrown by policemen and later beaten by
battens; Mr. Ali Ahmed Kurd, another lawyer in the forefront of Lawyers’
Movement against Gen. Pervez Musharraf, was thrashed by battens; dragged
on the ground and later taken into custody by police; women journalists
were pulled by their hair and dragged on the streets; scores of
journalists suffered serious injuries at the hands of police. The
infuriated journalists gave a beating to Minister of State for Information
– an unprecedented action in Pakistan’s history - and Dr. Farooq Sattar, a
legislator of the ruling coalition, was reportedly beaten by angry
lawyers. The violence on the streets covered by independent television
channels appeared as a dreadful precursor of a civil strife and reflected
increasing nervousness of a government fast losing initiative and control
on events. The tragic and violent events of September 29 and the ensuing
deepening polarisation have made the conduct of even a “peaceful” election
difficult, casting aside prospects of a “free and fair” election. These
developments have given rise to serious doubts about peaceful transition
to the next stage of democratisation via elections which is extremely
crucial for the security, stability and economic well-being of Pakistan.
While these unfortunate developments took
place, political parties were unable to play a significant, let alone
central, role on the national political stage. There was no evidence of
public interest in political parties and their activities. Media reports
of dialogue and a deal between Gen. Pervez Musharraf and Ms. Benazir
Bhutto’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) continue to undermine the
credibility of the party; earlier confession of Mr. Nawaz Sharif about the
existence of a written understanding between him and General Musharraf
through the Saudi government had saddened and depressed Pakistan Muslim
League-Nawaz (PML-N) followers; the never-ending controversy about
resignation from the assemblies within All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM)
has seriously harmed the prestige of the Alliance; events of May 12, 2007
significantly harmed the reputation of the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM)
even among its own sympathisers. People at large and media received the
candidature of a non-partisan Presidential candidate, Former Justice
Wajihuddin Ahmed, with far greater enthusiasm and respect than the antics
of the PPP, the APDM and the ruling coalition. Political parties appear to
be further losing public trust as these appear increasingly unable to
mobilise public in national politics at this critical juncture of national
history. Weakening political parties are not a good omen for credible
elections.
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