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How have
the events of the last one week affected the prospects of free and fair
election in Pakistan? A PILDAT team led by its Executive Director Ahmed
Bilal Mehboob, has analysed the recent developments in the perspective of
the coming elections.
PPP Chairperson Ms. Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan on Oct 18 ending
her 8 years of self-imposed exile. Despite speculations that huge sums of
money estimated to range from Rs. 300 to 500 Million were spent, the
successful mobilization of PPP workers and sympathisers at her Karachi
Airport reception is expected to boost public participation in the
political process and eventually may enhance her die-hard supporters’, if
not general people’s turn-out at the polls. Ms. Bhutto’s presence in
Pakistan will be helpful in creating a positive and continuous pressure on
the Government to demilitarise politics and ensure free and fair election.
Despite her long absence from Pakistan, PPP has worked as an efficient and
reasonably well-organised political machine mainly because of her own
organised style and hard work. Although her party did suffer setback when
many MNAs elected on her party tickets defected to Gen Pervez Musharraf in
2002, the rest of the party and its leaders remained steadfast. Generally
PPP has done much better paper work and background research on political
issues than its other counterparts. PPP was the only political party which
actively took up the serious issue of deficient new electoral rolls and
filed a petition in the Supreme Court. Again, on the question of Electoral
Reforms, PPP was among very few parties which produced a comprehensive set
of proposals. PPP Chairperson has displayed political boldness in clearly
expressing its position on some of the most controversial subjects such as
the IAEA access to Dr. A. Q. Khan and Allowing US forces to pursue Osama
Bin Ladin inside Pakistan despite the fact she knew very well that these
positions will not be popular with the people of Pakistan at large. What
is admirable here is that a political leader is clearly articulating her
and her party’s position on an important national issue. It is for the
people of Pakistan to endorse or reject that position. Clear articulation
of party positions by major political parties and leaders on all national
and major international issues will help the people of Pakistan to make an
informed choice on the day of the election. Ms. Benazir Bhutto’s party
colleagues may have found hard to defend her decision to seek amnesty for
the corruption cases and it is difficult to understand why she tried to
play ‘Sindh Card’ in her press conference on the eve of her departure for
Pakistan while a large number of followers from Punjab along with other
provinces gathered to welcome her at Karachi. Her understanding with
General Pervez Musharraf has also not gone down well with a lot of people
in Pakistan but she has displayed statesmanship and leadership by taking
some difficult decisions. Despite this mixed record, she will infuse a
great deal of badly-needed excitement and dynamism to Pakistani politics
in general and the on-going Election Campaign in particular.
It is a
positive development that the Government of Pakistan and the Sindh
Provincial Government worked closely with PPP to plan for the security and
traffic arrangements relating to their leader’s welcome at Karachi
Airport. That is the way it should be for all political leaders especially
those who represent major political parties and have held such
representative positions as the Prime Minister of Pakistan. The Government
should make arrangements to regularly brief such leaders on latest
developments on major domestic issues and foreign relations.
Government’s attitude at Ms. Benazir Bhutto’s reception was in sharp
contrast to their approach when another former Prime Minister and PML-N
leader Mr. Nawaz Sharif tried to come back to Pakistan recently. The
message which the current Government may be wanting to send is that
political leaders need to reach some kind of an understanding with the
Government before they can be given political space to operate in the
country – a rather sad message for all those who wish to see democracy and
the culture of free and fair elections to flourish in Pakistan.
Bomb blasts in Ms. Benazir Bhutto’s rally at Karachi which claimed over
160 lives was one of the worst terrorist activities in Pakistan. Whereas
the large crowd which had gathered to welcome Ms. Benazir Bhutto was a
positive development in the context of next general election, the bombing
may send negative signals and adversely affect election campaign by
political parties and their leaders. The tragic incident may change the
style and form of the election campaigns in Pakistan for ever. Large
public rallies have been a traditional expression of political support in
Pakistan and it may change for ever after the bombing incident. The
violent trend, if continued, may adversely affect the level of public
participation in the electoral process.
Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz and PML-Q President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain
have announced their intention and undertaken some initial steps to secure
a general consensus of all political parties on an agreed Election Code of
Conduct. It is a very welcome initiative but if they really want to see
their efforts to reach fruition, they should approach the top leadership
of all political parties without any discrimination including Mr. Nawaz
Sharif. A selective approach will simply not work and may prove more
counter-productive than no effort at all. The Election Code of Conduct
agreed to by all major Political Parties is extremely important and will
go a long way in organising free and fair election. If political parties
themselves take the initiative of developing a consensus on the subject
and involve the Election Commission to formalise the Code, it will
indicate maturity on the part of political parties and may earn them
respect of the people.
On the
other hand, The Election Commission, continuing with its traditional
approach to prepare an Election Code of Conduct first and then seek
political parties’ and leaders’ comments in bilateral contacts, announced
to consider a code of conduct in its meeting scheduled for October 24. The
Election Commission has traditionally avoided consultations with political
parties in a multilateral setting like a roundtable. It is highly
advisable that the Election Commission establishes contacts with political
parties and their leadership and hold extensive consultation with them
before preparing an Election Code of Conduct. It will be ideal if the
Election Commission acts only as a facilitator and encourages political
parties to come up with a consensus Code of Conduct A roundtable of all
political parties convened by the Election Commission may be the first
right step in this direction.
The Caretaker Governments at the Centre and Provinces envisaged in the
Constitution of Pakistan may not be able to provide an effective neutral
set-up during election because President himself is not neutral and all
indications are that he will continue to call shots even during the
election. President has the power to nominate the Caretaker governments in
his discretion. Despite this major handicap, caretaker governments
appointed with the blessing of major, if not all, political parties will
enhance public trust in the electoral process. Unconfirmed media reports
indicate that General Pervez Musharraf plans to consult Ms. Benazir Bhutto
of PPP and Maulana Fazal-ur- Rehman of MMA on the likely Caretaker
cabinets. It will be very useful for the credibility of the electoral
process if ALL political parties and political leadership including Mr.
Nawaz Sharif and Mr. Shahbaz Sharif are consulted on the Caretaker
Government instead of going for selective consultation.
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