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An Analysis of the Most Recent Events relating to Elections in Pakistan by the Research and Analysis Team of Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development And Transparency - PILDAT What are the prospects for this crucial Presidential election to be free and fair? Starting with this first issue, PILDAT will circulate a weekly, and if required, more frequent Election Monitor to update the Citizens of Pakistan, Media and International Community about the Presidential and General Elections in Pakistan. The Issue 1 of the Election Monitor is devoted to assessing the prospects of the upcoming Presidential Election as a free and fair exercise. This issue of Election Monitor tries to explore the answer to the crucial question. What are the prospects for this crucial Presidential election to be free and fair? Following are some of the indicators which may shed some light on what kind of Presidential Election one may expect on October 6, 2007.
Generally Presidential Election is not of critical importance in a Parliamentary Democracy – the system Pakistan espouses at least on paper. But given the special nature of the current political context and the explicit association of the incumbent President / Chief of Army Staff to the current ruling coalition, the upcoming Presidential election holds the key to the coming General Election. The outcome of the Presidential Election will, to a large measure, determine the result of the General Election – which can be held latest by February 2008. The election of Gen. Pervez Musharraf for a new 5-year term as President will send a clear message to the general electorate that in a patronage-based society like Pakistan, only a pro-Musharraf parliamentarian will have any chance to serve his/her electors while others in the opposition will not be able to ensure development, jobs, protection from state high-handedness, etc., for their constituents. That explains the unique significance of this Presidential Election in Pakistan which is scheduled for October 6, 2007 and this also explains why there were persistent suggestions to hold General Election ahead of Presidential Election.
1. Media is Generally Free and Vibrant: Both electronic and print media are generally free, vibrant and, at times, extremely critical of the Government. Despite reports that the Government resorts to behind-the-scene strong-arm tactics to pressurise owners, publishers, editors and reporters, the political debate in the media is generally open and apparently unrestrained. 2. The Supreme Court is Assertive with New-found Independence: The Supreme Court, the highest judicial body in the country, recently overturned an effort by the Government and President to sack the Chief Justice of Pakistan. President Musharraf who is also Chief of the Army Staff and the Government accepted the Court verdict and apparently tried to make peace with the newly-found independence and assertiveness of the higher judiciary. The Supreme Court has passed several judgments which went against the Government recently such as granting release of PML-N leader Javed Hashmi from the prison on bail and accepting pleas of Mr. Nawaz Sharif and Mr. Shahbaz Sharif for their return to Pakistan. 3. President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has Finally set a Deadline for his Retirement as Army Chief: General Pervez Musharraf, the President and Chief of Army Staff, has formally conveyed his intention, through his lawyers in the Supreme Court, to retire as Chief of Army Staff if elected as President, thus undertaking to remove a major obstacle in the way of further democratisation of the society. He had made a similar public commitment to retire as Army Chief by the end of 2004 but later reneged on his promise.
4. Gen. Musharraf Declared to Contest Presidential Election while He Holds the Position of the Army Chief: Despite persistent demands by the opposition political parties, independent analysts, civil society organisations, media and even some of the ruling party legislators, Gen. Pervez Musharraf has decided to run for the office of the President while he is also the Chief of the Army. This is an unprecedented step in the history of Pakistan and this gives Gen. Pervez Musharraf an immense clout and a definite unfair advantage over other candidates, if any. As President / Army Chief, he controls two major intelligence agencies that are known to be highly active in national politics. 5. Supreme Court Ruling Apparently Defied by the Government while Deporting Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif: Mr. Nawaz Sharif, Former Prime Minister of Pakistan, returned to Pakistan on September 10, 2007 after a 7-years exile following the Supreme Court ruling that he, as citizen of Pakistan, has the right to return to and remain in Pakistan. Despite this clear ruling, the Government did not allow Mr. Nawaz Sharif to go out of the airport and was made to leave for Saudi Arabia, apparently against his will, within 4 hours of his arrival. A contempt of court petition is filed in the Supreme Court but has not been heard so far. This open defiance of the apex court orders has sent an intimidating message to the higher judiciary that all their orders may not be accepted and implemented and thus putting them under pressure. This pressure may be extremely crucial as the Supreme Court is currently hearing a number of constitutional petitions which seek to disqualify Gen. Pervez Musharraf as a candidate for the office of the President. The Government’s defiance of the Court ruling has seriously demoralised the opposition political parties. The court judgment is expected on September 26, 2007 while the Election Commission has to finally scrutinise the nomination papers for the Presidential elections on September 29, 2007. 6. The Government and the Election Commission Changed Presidential Election Rules to the Benefit of Gen. Pervez Musharraf - barely 26 Days before the Presidential Election: The Presidential Election Rules were modified to remove a part of the ‘Rule 5 (2) a’ which could disqualify Gen. Pervez Musharraf as a Presidential candidate. The amendment, though stated to be necessitated by two Supreme Court judgments given in 2002 and 2005, were made on September 10, 2007 - so close to the Presidential election. Why this change now? The timing and the non-transparent manner has raised a number of questions about the independence and impartiality of the Election Commission of Pakistan. 7. Pakistani History’s Most Expensive and Massive Media Campaign is Launched to Promote Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s bid for the Next Term - Paid out of the State Exchequer: As the Presidential Election Schedule is announced, Government has launched a massive media campaign on a number of television and radio channels as well as newspapers highlighting the accomplishments of the government under Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s leadership during the past 8 years. Neither the Election Commission nor the courts have so far taken any notice of this unfair practice. 8. Election Commission has Failed to Frame and Introduce a Code of Conduct for Presidential Election: Despite the fact the Election Commission of Pakistan was formally requested 3 months ago by the Citizens Group on Electoral Process (CGEP) and PILDAT to frame a Code of Conduct exclusively for Presidential election, the Election Commission has taken no steps to frame a Code of Conduct for Presidential Election making it rather more difficult to make the candidates conform to certain minimum norms. Usually such a code of conduct restrains the incumbent from taking unfair advantage of incumbency but the lack of such a code of conduct has definitely provided General Musharraf an unfair advantage at tax payers’ expense. 9. Mass Arrest of Opposition Political Leadership: As the Presidential election draws near, the Government has arrested dozens of opposition political leaders and is besieging the residences and party offices of many others to stop the opposition from holding demonstrations and from resigning from the legislatures – as announced by them to protest the candidature of a serving military officer. 10. Political Parties try to mobilise masses to ‘impress’ the Judiciary: The Jamaat-e-Islami leadership tried to mobilise crowds in front of the Supreme Court building in Islamabad to ‘impress’ or ‘influence’ the court which is hearing a crucial case about the dual offices held by the President/Chief of Army Staff. MQM, a ruling coalition partner, mobilised masses in Karachi in the Sindh High Court which is looking into the killing of around 50 persons on May 12, 2007 on the eve of the aborted visit of the Chief Justice of Pakistan to Karachi while he was facing a presidential reference for his removal. This practice may jeopardise the independence and even the dignity of the higher judiciary which has barely commenced its journey on the road to independence.
Although direct rigging on the day of election is not anticipated – not on a large scale at least, the majority of above indicators tend to negatively affect the prospects of free and fair Presidential Election. A Presidential Election perceived to be unfair and manipulated will strongly and negatively impact the credibility of coming general election. The resulting crisis may spill out of the court rooms on to the streets and affect the stability of the country. A broad consensus of Pakistani public opinion is emerging, as evidenced in the daily political discourse in the media and outside, that election of President Musharraf in uniform will not be a step forward in the journey of democratisation if not a clear negation of the minimum standards of free, fair and democratic presidential election. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PILDAT will welcome feedback and comments by the readers and recipients of this Monitor. Please e-mail your comments and feedback at info@pildat.org |
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